CFAR Insurance Value Calculator

Is Cancel For Any Reason coverage mathematically worth buying? Enter your trip details to find your break-even point.

Step 1 — Trip Details
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all prepaid trip expenses
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flights, deposits, tours…
used to check CFAR deadline
Step 2 — CFAR Policy Details

Enter the CFAR premium you've been quoted, or let the calculator estimate it from the typical industry range (7–12% of non-refundable cost).

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Step 3 — Cancellation Probability

How likely are you to cancel this trip? Use the slider if you have a gut feel, or answer the guided questions for a suggested estimate you can adjust.

Very unlikely (0%)Coin flip (50%)Likely (100%)
20% cancellation probability

Answer each question — the calculator scores your risk factors and suggests a cancellation probability. You can override it with the slider above after.

Does anyone on this trip have a known or recent health issue? Pre-existing conditions, pending medical decisions, or elderly travelers in the group
Is this trip dependent on a work schedule or job that could change? Freelance/contract work, uncertain employment, or a job that frequently requires emergency travel
Are you traveling internationally to a destination with political or weather risk? Hurricane-prone regions, high State Dept. advisory levels, or regions with recent instability
Are there 3 or more people in your travel group? More travelers = more potential reasons to cancel (illness, scheduling conflicts, etc.)
Is this trip more than 6 months away? Longer lead times allow more life disruptions to occur before departure
Have you cancelled or seriously considered cancelling a trip in the past 2 years? Past behavior is one of the best predictors of future cancellation
Your Results
Break-Even Probability
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to justify CFAR cost
Your Cancellation Est.
—
probability entered
Expected Net Value
—
at your probability
The Math Behind Your Result
Break-Even Scenario Table

Your CFAR premium is . See whether coverage pays off across a range of cancellation probabilities.

Cancel Probability Expected Payout CFAR Premium Net Value Decision
Important Flags

Ready to Compare CFAR Quotes?

Now that you know whether CFAR is worth buying, get actual quotes to find the best rate. Squaremouth compares 30+ travel insurance providers side by side.

Compare Quotes — Squaremouth → Try InsureMyTrip Try Travelex

This calculator is for informational purposes only and does not constitute insurance advice. CFAR policy terms, reimbursement rates, and purchase deadlines vary by insurer. Always read the full policy before purchasing. Break-even calculations are based on expected value math — your actual outcome depends on whether you cancel, not the probability estimate.